一段非常生動(dòng)的四分鐘視頻解釋什么是“情景規(guī)劃法”

當(dāng)前的供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題更加容易吸引我們的注意力，我們很多時(shí)候會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，為了解決當(dāng)下問(wèn)題而發(fā)起的改善項(xiàng)目，等到完成項(xiàng)目后，發(fā)現(xiàn)整個(gè)世界又變化了。而這些變化中，有一些情況又似乎曾經(jīng)出現(xiàn)在我們的討論中。對(duì)于長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的未來(lái)，我們難以準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)，這也不現(xiàn)實(shí)。我們要做的是為多種可能未來(lái)做好相應(yīng)的預(yù)案。

殼牌公司通過(guò)熟練運(yùn)用“情景規(guī)劃法”，使得其在1973年至1974年冬季OPEC（石油輸出國(guó)組織）宣布石油禁運(yùn)政策時(shí)，殼牌有良好的準(zhǔn)備，成為唯一一家能夠抵擋這次危機(jī)的大石油公司。從此，殼牌公司從世界七大石油公司中最小的一個(gè)，一躍成為世界第二大石油公司。

無(wú)獨(dú)有偶，在1986年石油價(jià)格崩落前夕，殼牌情景規(guī)劃小組又一次預(yù)先指出了這種可能性，因此殼牌并沒(méi)有效仿其他各大石油公司在價(jià)格崩潰之前收購(gòu)其他的石油公司和油田擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)，而是在價(jià)格崩落之后，花35億美元購(gòu)買(mǎi)了大量油田，這一舉措為殼牌鎖定了20余年的價(jià)格優(yōu)勢(shì)。

情景規(guī)劃法是一套在高度不確定的環(huán)境中幫助企業(yè)進(jìn)行高瞻遠(yuǎn)矚的方法，它不僅能夠幫助決策者進(jìn)行一些特定的決策，同時(shí)也使得決策者對(duì)需要變革的信號(hào)更為敏感。

下面一段視頻，將有助于我們理解這一工具。

*視頻版權(quán)歸MIT所有

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Planning is a complicated activity.

計(jì)劃是一項(xiàng)復(fù)雜的活動(dòng)。

It requires an organization to make its best estimate of what the future will be.

它需要一個(gè)組織對(duì)未來(lái)做出最好的估計(jì)。

At any point in time, all the planners have to work with is what happened in the past.

在任何時(shí)候，所有的計(jì)劃人員都必須與過(guò)去發(fā)生的事情一起工作。

They face the challenge of translating this knowledge into a useful forecast of the future.

他們面臨著將這些知識(shí)轉(zhuǎn)化為對(duì)未來(lái)有用預(yù)測(cè)的挑戰(zhàn)。

For shorter planning horizons, most widely used forecasting methods such as time series analysis or regression use the most recent history to project into the future.

對(duì)于較短的規(guī)劃范圍，最廣泛使用的預(yù)測(cè)方法（如時(shí)間序列分析或回歸）使用最新的歷史數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)。

This is like boxing where planners assume the current trends and conditions will continue into the foreseeable future.

這就像拳擊一樣，計(jì)劃人員假定當(dāng)前的趨勢(shì)和條件將在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)繼續(xù)下去。

For relatively short periods, like a month, a quarter, or a year or two, it is usually OK to assume that the near future will be similar to the recent past.

對(duì)于相對(duì)較短的時(shí)期，如一個(gè)月、一個(gè)季度或一兩年，通?？梢约俣ń诘奈磥?lái)與近期的過(guò)去類(lèi)似。

These traditional methods, however, do not perform as well for longer term horizons-- 10, 20, 30 years out or more.

然而，這些傳統(tǒng)方法在長(zhǎng)期范圍內(nèi)（10年、20年、30年或更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間）的表現(xiàn)并不好。

The question is, how should we plan over these long time frames?

問(wèn)題是，我們應(yīng)該如何規(guī)劃這些長(zhǎng)期框架？

Using traditional methods over a long planning horizon will only lead to a longer projection of the current conditions and trends.

在長(zhǎng)期規(guī)劃中使用傳統(tǒng)方法只會(huì)導(dǎo)致對(duì)當(dāng)前條件和趨勢(shì)的長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)。

Over a longer period of time, current trends simply will not hold.

但是在較長(zhǎng)的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，當(dāng)前的趨勢(shì)根本無(wú)法保持。

Step changes and unforeseen events will occur.

步調(diào)變化和不可預(yù)見(jiàn)的事件將發(fā)生。

Natural disasters, political unrest, economic upheavals,technological innovations, any one of these can cause tremendous changes.

自然災(zāi)害、政治動(dòng)亂、經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩、技術(shù)革新，這些都會(huì)造成巨大的變化。

Traditional forecasting methods are simply not designed to handle these unforeseen step changes.

傳統(tǒng)的預(yù)測(cè)方法根本不能用來(lái)處理這些不可預(yù)見(jiàn)的步驟變化。

This brings us back to the problem of how to make long-term plans.

這使我們回到了如何制定長(zhǎng)期計(jì)劃的問(wèn)題上。

Obviously, boxing or extending the current trends does not make sense for a long-term horizon.

顯然，拳擊或擴(kuò)展當(dāng)前的趨勢(shì)對(duì)于長(zhǎng)期的前景來(lái)說(shuō)是沒(méi)有意義的。

For these long-range plans, traditional forecasting techniques are like throwing darts at a board.

對(duì)于這些長(zhǎng)期計(jì)劃來(lái)說(shuō)，傳統(tǒng)的預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)就像是向棋盤(pán)投擲飛鏢。

Fortunately, there is a different approach called scenario planning.

幸運(yùn)的是，有一種稱(chēng)為場(chǎng)景規(guī)劃的不同方法。

Instead of trying to predict the one future that will occur, it might make sense to consider multiple possible futures all at once.

與其試圖預(yù)測(cè)將要發(fā)生的一個(gè)未來(lái)，不如同時(shí)考慮多個(gè)可能的未來(lái)。

Scenario planning is based on the idea that organizations are better at preparing than they are at predicting.

場(chǎng)景規(guī)劃是基于這樣一個(gè)理念：組織比預(yù)測(cè)更擅長(zhǎng)準(zhǔn)備。

If I tell an organization exactly what the future will be like, they can usually do a great job preparing for it.

如果我告訴一個(gè)組織未來(lái)會(huì)是什么樣子，他們通常會(huì)做好準(zhǔn)備。

Scenario planning is a way to prepare for multiple potential futures.

場(chǎng)景規(guī)劃是為多個(gè)潛在的未來(lái)做準(zhǔn)備的一種方法。

This is more like judo.

這更像柔道。

Instead of boxing or projecting forward to a fixed future based on the recent past, planners prepare to respond to any one of several possible futures.

規(guī)劃者們準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對(duì)幾種可能的未來(lái)中的任何一種，而不是根據(jù)最近的過(guò)去進(jìn)行拳擊或預(yù)測(cè)一個(gè)固定的未來(lái)。

They do this by answering the question, what should I be doing today given that this particular future is going to happen?

他們通過(guò)回答這個(gè)問(wèn)題來(lái)做到這一點(diǎn)，考慮到這個(gè)特殊的未來(lái)將會(huì)發(fā)生，我今天應(yīng)該做什么？

In scenario planning, it is key to keep in mind that each future we choose is just one potential future out of many.

在場(chǎng)景規(guī)劃中，關(guān)鍵是要記住，我們選擇的每一個(gè)未來(lái)都只是眾多未來(lái)中的一個(gè)潛在未來(lái)。

We do not seek to predict exactly which future will come to pass because there are an infinite number of potential, possible, and plausible futures out there.

我們并不試圖準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生什么，因?yàn)槲磥?lái)有無(wú)限多的潛在的、可能的和可信的未來(lái)。

Because it is impossible to explore all of them, we must create a handful of plausible, alternative futures that together capture the most relevant uncertainties and driving factors.

因?yàn)椴豢赡芴剿魉羞@些因素，我們必須創(chuàng)造一些合理的、可替代的未來(lái)，共同捕捉最相關(guān)的不確定性和驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。

Think of these as describing the potential, feasible region for the future.

把這些看作是描述未來(lái)潛在的、可行的區(qū)域。

When we look forward from the present, we can't tell in which direction we will end up moving, but by carefully designing potential scenarios, a lot of ground can be covered.

當(dāng)我們從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始展望的時(shí)候，我們不知道我們會(huì)朝哪個(gè)方向前進(jìn)，但是通過(guò)仔細(xì)設(shè)計(jì)潛在的場(chǎng)景，我們可以覆蓋很多領(lǐng)域。

In scenario planning, there is no need to predict specific events.

在場(chǎng)景規(guī)劃中，不需要預(yù)測(cè)特定事件。

It is more important to identify the smaller number of relevant effects that these events can trigger.

更重要的是要確定這些事件能夠觸發(fā)的相關(guān)影響的數(shù)量較少。

For example, for a firm that sources material from a specific region of the world, any number of events in that region-- an earthquake, a pandemic, economic collapse, or an industrial disaster-- will all have the same effect of reducing the flow of product from it.

例如，對(duì)于一家從世界某一特定地區(qū)采購(gòu)材料的公司來(lái)說(shuō)，該地區(qū)發(fā)生的任何事件——地震、流行病、經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰或工業(yè)災(zāi)難——都將具有減少產(chǎn)品流動(dòng)的相同效果。

There's no need to predict all of these events when all they do is shape a handful of important effects.

沒(méi)有必要預(yù)測(cè)所有這些事件，因?yàn)樗鼈兯龅闹皇切纬梢恍┲匾挠绊憽?/p>

In the end, this offers a real benefit for planners. Scenario planning allows them to replace the futile job of predicting future events with a more feasible task of preparing their organizations to face the most relevant effects.

最后，這為規(guī)劃者提供了真正的好處。場(chǎng)景規(guī)劃允許他們用一項(xiàng)更可行的任務(wù)來(lái)取代預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)事件的無(wú)用工作，即讓他們的組織準(zhǔn)備面對(duì)最相關(guān)的影響。